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CLIMEX Predictions Validated Roadside surveys conducted over three years support CLIMEX predictions of negligible naturalisation potential for cotton in northern Australia. CLIMEX is the software application used by scientists around the world to model and predict the potential distribution of flora and fauna.

As our climate changes the potential distribution and naturalisation of flora and fauna changes. CLIMEX helps us to understand and map the potential new distribution and naturalisation patterns which emerge from climate change. Ayat Al Mathurat Pdf. A new research paper* presents data from 3 years of surveys for cotton volunteers on a road transport route in Australia, over which they carry cotton seed for use on dairy farms.

There is agreement between the results of the roadside surveys and the CLIMEX modelling predictions by Research Connections and Consulting showing negligible naturalisation potential. A survey of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) volunteers was conducted along the 1400 km of a cottonseed transport route in north-east Australia to determine the extent of naturalisation from spilt seed. In each year, 1% of the road distance was inspected for volunteer plants.

Over 3 years, 22 cotton plants were found at eight sites. Within the cotton production region, volunteers averaged 2.28 plants per km of road; their most likely source was seed cotton spilt during the previous harvest. Further north, three plants were found over 3 years, at an average density of 0.089 plants per km of road; all three plants were found in locations with a positive Ecoclimatic Index. No secondary spread was detected. Roadside slashing reduced plant survival and the potential to produce seed.

In the wet tropics, weed competition and slashing prevented volunteers establishing. The surveys indicate that roadsides in north-east Australia are a hostile environment for the establishment of cotton plants, with no evidence of naturalisation or secondary spread.